Forecasting of Seasonal and Cyclical Variations of fish catch from Egyptian Mediterranean Fisheries

Zainab M. Abd El–Khalek, National Institute of Oceanography and Fisheries ALEX., EGYPT
Nabil E. Hassan, National Institute of Oceanography and Fisheries ALEX., EGYPT
Ola M. El – Sonbaty, National Institute of Oceanography and Fisheries ALEX., EGYPTFollow
Shaimaa M. Haggag, National Institute of Oceanography and Fisheries ALEX., EGYPT
Rania I. Younis, National Institute of Oceanography and Fisheries ALEX., EGYPT
Mohamed Toubar, National Institute of Oceanography and Fisheries ALEX., EGYPT

Article Type

Research Article

Subject Area

Fisheries Science

Abstract

The fishing sector of Egypt in the Mediterranean Sea is characterized by an extensive economic resources. however magnitude of catch and the productivity of its resources is low and of decreasing trend over time, expressed in Catch Per Unit Effort (CPUE).

The Time Series package used to analyze secular trend, cyclic, seasonal changes and forecasting future trends. Bio/economic models (Schaefer, 1954 & Fox, 1970) are analyzed. To estimate maximum effort (Fmax) and maximum yield (Ymax) to maintain fish stocks biological, social and economic sustainability. Primary data about catch and efforts is scarce and un-detailed in aggregated form especially gear – classes, motor H.P. capacities, day’s at sea, and only in 2-3years lag period.

Study results revealed decreasing rate by 3% annually in Egyptian Medit. Fisheries in (2005 – 2020), The forecasted fish catch (2021 – 2023) period will be estimated by 50, 48.5 and 47.1 Thousand tons respectively. Compared to positive rate of about +3.8% in the first period of study (1962-2020). Results of seasonal changes revealed that peak season of catch magnitude was as high as 127.9 and 105 in Summer and autumn respectively. Cyclic changes results, indicated that the interval of time between two maxima were irregular, which may indicate no cyclic variation. Results of Fox model was better than scheafer’s model from each statistics and economic logics. The existing effort (F estimated) according to Fox model is higher than the allowable limit by about 433 standard boats. The resultant catch (Y estimated) is higher than the allowable YMAX by about 7.785 thousand tons. The excess effort should be re-allocated in under - utilized fishing grounds to maintain fish stocks sustainability. It's essential to raise statistical accuracy, update statistical primary data, more experimental fishing trips by NIOF vessels to effective and comprehensive vertical integration among NIOF, GAFRD and related auxiliary services institutions in the fishery economy of Egypt.

Full Text of Submission

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Recommended Citation

El–Khalek, Zainab M. Abd; Hassan, Nabil E.; El – Sonbaty, Ola M.; Haggag, Shaimaa M.; Younis, Rania I.; and Toubar, Mohamed (2023) "Forecasting of Seasonal and Cyclical Variations of fish catch from Egyptian Mediterranean Fisheries," Blue Economy: Vol. 1 : Iss. 2 , Article 3.
Available at: https://doi.org/10.57241/2805-2994.1010