Annual and Seasonal Mean Air Temperature Trends and Future Projections over the Nile Delta, Egypt

Amna S. Dabbous, National Institute of Oceanography and Fisheries, NIOF, Egypt
Dina M. Hendy, National Institute of Oceanography and Fisheries, NIOF, Egypt
Yasser M. El-Wakeel, Department of Oceanography, Faculty of Science, Alexandria University, Egypt
Tarek M. El-Geziry, National Institute of Oceanography and Fisheries, NIOF, EgyptFollow

Article Type

Research Article

Subject Area

Climate Change

Corresponding Author

Tarek M. El-Geziry

Corresponding Author ORCID

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6127-9872

Abstract

The Mediterranean air temperature has steadily increased during the last few decades. This shift affects ecological ecosystems and human activity. This study examined longterm air temperature trends in Alexandria and Port Said, using monthly data from 1957 to 2022 to assess the impact of climate change on these coastal cities, being the two extremities of the Nile Delta. Temperature records were analyzed using the Mann- Kendall test, a robust non-parametric statistical method for detecting trends in climatic data, and future projections were evaluated through the CMIP5 climate models under various RCP scenarios. Considerable warming trends were seen in the air temperature data from Alexandria and Port Said, during the research period. The average monthly air temperature in Port Said was higher than that of Alexandria by 0.50°C, i.e. 1.05%. In Alexandria and Port Said, the annual mean air temperature demonstrated a rising tendency, with rates of +0.021°C and +0.0156°C, respectively. Except for summer, Alexandria's mean air temperature trends were much higher than those of Port Said in the winter, spring, and autumn. The findings revealed statistically significant positive annual and seasonal trends in both cities during the research period. By 2100, annual temperatures in both cities are projected to rise by up to 2.00°C, with an average annual temperature of around 23.00°C, with summer and autumn expected to experience the highest increases. These findings underscore the vulnerability of the Nile Delta coastal regions to climate change, necessitating proactive measures for adaptation and mitigation by policymakers and urban planners. The obtained projections provide crucial guidance for climate-resilient urban design, supporting authorities in building effective adaptation plans, enhancing infrastructure resilience, and safeguarding coastal inhabitants in Alexandria and Port Said from rising climate risks.

Full Text of Submission

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Recommended Citation

Dabbous, Amna S.; Hendy, Dina M.; El-Wakeel, Yasser M.; and El-Geziry, Tarek M. (2025) "Annual and Seasonal Mean Air Temperature Trends and Future Projections over the Nile Delta, Egypt," Blue Economy: Vol. 3 : Iss. 2 , Article 4.
Available at: https://doi.org/10.57241/2805-2994.1042